Has the tide turned, with the mighty ANC losing its tight grip on the Vhembe region? Based on the results of last week's by-election in Musina, this may very well be the case, but the opposition parties are still a long way off from creating a more balanced political landscape in the most northern corner of the country.

As expected, the ANC's Raymond Mashudu Nyathi won the by-election in Ward 2 in Musina that was held last Wednesday, 15 October. He secured 761 votes (62.76%), down from more than 75% in the 2021 local government elections and 69.5% in last year's national elections.

The by-election was triggered by the death of ANC councillor David Mukobi in July. The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) recorded a 33.6% voter turnout, significantly lower than the 45% seen in 2024 and well below the 2021 figures.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) came second with 170 votes (14.02%), followed by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 78 votes (6.43%). New entrants BABSA and ELF-SA surprised observers with their strong showing, signalling growing voter appetite for fresh alternatives. BABSA, led by former world boxing champion and lawyer Lovemore Ndou, finished close behind the EFF with 72 votes (5.94%).

Political observers said the result highlighted a slow but consistent erosion of ANC support in Musina. In the 2021 local elections, the party swept 81% of the vote at the Beitbridge Primary voting district — the largest in the ward — and won seven of the remaining eight districts. This time, its share dropped by nearly 20 percentage points across the ward.

By-election marred by intimidation allegations

Opposition parties were not impressed by some events preceding the by-election and also with what happened on the day.

A few weeks before the election, a video went viral on social media. The video was taken in Musina Matswale during a by-election campaign. In the video, ANC members can be seen mobilising and they were all saying “Uya wina Mashudu, uya wina.” A voice from the back was heard saying in Tshivenda, “Madi, ri khou toda madi, arina madi” (We want water, when will we get water?). A man in ANC regalia was seen going to the man and slapping him in the face.

BABSA's Lovemore Ndou was very vociferous in his condemnation of the action. “He was asking a fair and legit question but was assaulted for that. That should have been a disqualification of the ANC from the by-election,” he said.

He was also critical of the IEC officials and was convinced that they were biased. “We were informed a few days before the election day that three voting stations were not going to operate. This was a message that came directly from the IEC. Then, on election day, they decided to reopen these voting stations. Personally, I believe that was done intentionally,” he said.

Ndou, however, did not file any complaint and did not raise any of the issues with the IEC. “I'm not going to bother wasting my time and energy. The ANC gets away with murder,” he said.

Hulisani Mani, founder of the Economic Liberation Foundation South Africa (ELF-SA), also complained about what he called intimidation tactics. “While we believe the elections were generally free and fair, there were instances of manipulation, such as registering community members from other wards. This has been a learning curve for us, and we are committed to ensuring it doesn't happen again in the future,” said Mani.

Small parties encouraged by results

Both BABSA and ELF-SA are encouraged by the results. “BABSA is still a baby, only a year old, and yet we performed better than the EFF,” said Ndou. “In life, you win some and lose some, but you always learn something from losing. We are still winners. I'm proud of our members, leaders and youth for their effort and commitment during the campaign. Musina is my hometown, and I'm going to fix it for the better,” he said.

Mani said his organisation was also encouraged by its performance. “We are very confident that, with focused efforts leading up to the next elections, we will emerge as a significant force in Musina. We believe that we will be part of the government in Musina after the upcoming local elections,” he said.

Mani added that residents were tired of being courted only during election season.

“The decline in votes for the ruling party indicates that people are weary of only receiving attention during election periods. For instance, in Ward 2, there was a noticeable increase in water supply just three weeks before the elections, despite a lack of consistent service prior. We firmly believe that the ruling party will not maintain governance in the next elections — it's time for change.”

The ANC’s winning candidate, Raymond Mashudu Nyathi, was asked for comment, but he initially referred questions to the Vhembe region’s spokesperson, Frank Chililo. Chililo promised to respond by 10:00 on Wednesday but did not do so and later referred questions to the regional secretary. He also suggested that Nyathi be asked for comment.
Nyathi later promised to respond, but said he first needs to deal with a family matter.